Research integrity before idea volume

How Research Ideas Are Grounded

The selected excerpt is display evidence. Novelty is tested against the full available point-in-time disclosure record.

Bounded validation

2 published ยท 6 safe failures

Zero actionable trade views. Formal blinded human ratings remain pending.

Experimental feature: These are AI-generated research hypotheses grounded in cited filing evidence. They are not facts, personalized investment advice, or validated trading signals. Analyst review is required.

Eight controls

From disclosure to analyst decision

Each stage can stop the packet. A plausible narrative is not enough.

  1. Full prior-filing searchSearch prior 10-K sections, full filings, earlier annual reports, 8-Ks, prior news, and current context.
  2. Atomic claim decompositionSeparate each factual proposition so unsupported content cannot hide inside a broader sentence.
  3. Financial-quantity normalizationAssign amounts an economic role, unit, period, conditionality, and paid/remaining basis.
  4. Novelty verificationFind the earliest eligible prior occurrence and state what changed and what did not.
  5. Counterevidence retrievalActively search for evidence that weakens novelty, mechanism, or instrument fit.
  6. Hypothesis generationRetain only evidence-linked, cautious, falsifiable research questions.
  7. Skeptical reviewTest the opposite interpretation, genericity, unsupported causality, and quantity-role conflicts.
  8. Analyst approvalKeep the final decision and notes local to the analyst workflow.

Trust checklist

What must be visible

Published packets expose evidence and limitations, not hidden reasoning traces.

What this can do

Structure a research agenda

  • Show verified evidence and novelty
  • Propose a possible mechanism
  • Define required data and falsification conditions
  • Surface the strongest contrary interpretation

What this does not do

Recommend a trade

  • No live generation
  • No buy or sell instruction
  • No position size, leverage, stop loss, or price target
  • No claims of analyst approval or completed human validation

Public-safe guided example

One frozen RH hypothesis, five inspectable decisions

This compact view uses only the validated V2 public-safe contract. No V1 speculation or future outcome is loaded.

01Verified change

Expanded PII and payment-card risk language in Item 1A.

02Full prior-evidence check

Complete prior disclosure context reviewed before the final novelty decision.

03Possible mechanism

Investigate issuer-specific control or compliance changes; no incident is established.

04Falsifiable hypothesis

Peer and control evidence should distinguish issuer specificity from boilerplate.

05Analyst decision

PASS_HYPOTHESIS_ONLY with no actionable trade view.

Current gate

The 60-case phase remains blocked.

Broader generation requires at least six of eight publishable packets, zero critical grounding defects in published packets, complete retrieval coverage, transparent safe failures, and a frozen methodology. The bounded V2 produced only two publishable hypotheses.

Review the bounded results