Josh Gutierrez · Portfolio implementation

How much tracking risk is worth a tax bill?

Compare lot-aware transitions, trace every dollar and see the controls that block an invalid instruction.

Hypothetical inputs · Illustrative annual risk estimates · 14 October 2026 decision · Local paper ledger, not live execution

01 · Choose the implementation trade-off

Two separate accounts. Seven allowed tax budgets. The same illustrative prices, risk model, target and 5 bp transaction-cost assumption.

Annual tracking-risk estimate——
Modeled tax reserve—Positive gains only; not an actual tax payment
Modeled trading fee—Purchases and sales both incur costs
Ending investable cash——

The tax-reserve / risk frontier

Each point is a solved budget scenario. Overlapping points mean a larger budget does not justify spending more under this fixed objective. Risk is a model estimate, not realized performance.

Exposure before and after

BeforeAfterTarget

After weights use post-fee, post-reserve investable NAV. The optimizer's convex tracking objective uses starting-NAV-normalized dollar positions; the two definitions are deliberately shown separately.

All seven budget decisions and exact units

On small screens, scroll the table horizontally.

Proposed lot-level trades

Fractional shares; modeled basis excludes transaction fees. The policy sells initially overweight or prohibited names and buys initially underweight names. Losses receive no tax credit. No wash-sale or whole-share execution model is implied.

02 · Challenge the instruction

A separate implementation reconstructs sales, purchases, fees, positive-gain reserves, ending cash and positions. It does not call the optimizer's accounting helpers.

These are saved outcomes from executable fault tests, not controls running on a live portfolio. Payload fingerprints were refreshed for economic fault tests so a hash check could not hide a missing accounting control.

03 · Recover without applying a trade twice

The paper journal uses atomic SQLite transactions, explicit state versions and idempotency keys. A contribution changes capital, not investment profit.

    One hypothetical decision date. A reopen-and-replay demonstration is evidence of tested recovery behavior, not a claim of production uptime or long-running monitoring.

    04 · What the evidence supports

    All account values, tax rates, prices and covariance inputs are invented for this lab. The separate historical WRDS/CRSP study remains unchanged. A technical PASS releases a paper instruction for review; it does not authorize a trade.